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Green Bay Packers

3-4-1 HC Mike McCarthy
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New England Patriots

7-2 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 20:20 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 56.0

Win Probability

GB
31.4%
NE
68.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.187 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.001 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 21 14–28
–
NE 27 20–34
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

GB

Geronimo Allison WR Doubtful Hamstring
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Nick Perry LB Questionable Ankle
Jermaine Whitehead S Questionable Back

NE

Shaquille Mason G Out Calf
Brian Schwenke C Out Foot
Nicholas Grigsby LB Questionable Illness
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Concussion
Joe Cardona LS Questionable Shoulder
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Ankle
Josh Gordon WR Questionable Hamstring
Geneo Grissom DE Questionable Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ankle
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Jacob Hollister TE Questionable Hamstring
Sony Michel RB Questionable Knee
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Questionable Neck
John Simon DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17
–
NE 31

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:44 TD NE (11:44) 28-J.White left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 05:08 FG GB (5:08) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 3 – NE 7
  • Q2 13:32 FG NE (13:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. GB 3 – NE 10
  • Q2 04:54 TD GB (4:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – NE 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD NE (2:00) 84-C.Patterson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – NE 16
  • Q3 11:24 TD GB (11:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – NE 17
  • Q4 10:09 TD NE (10:09) (No Huddle) 28-J.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – NE 23
  • Q4 07:28 TD NE (7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-J.Gordon for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-Gordon 12th career 100-yard game. GB 17 – NE 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (5:08) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:39) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to GB 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 44%

    (:20) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (13:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:43) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to NE 27, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:46) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:21) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to NE 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (7:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Gordon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:25) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to NE 48, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-J.Edelman to NE 48 for no gain (44-A.Morrison). PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 28%

    (2:44) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to GB 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:40) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 28, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%

    (3:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [94-A.Clayborn].

    See the full breakdown →