Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Tom Brady (NE): +0.187 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- NE defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- GB defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
GB
NE
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:44 TD NE (11:44) 28-J.White left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – NE 6
- Q1 05:08 FG GB (5:08) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 3 – NE 7
- Q2 13:32 FG NE (13:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. GB 3 – NE 10
- Q2 04:54 TD GB (4:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – NE 10
- Q2 02:00 TD NE (2:00) 84-C.Patterson up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – NE 16
- Q3 11:24 TD GB (11:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – NE 17
- Q4 10:09 TD NE (10:09) (No Huddle) 28-J.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – NE 23
- Q4 07:28 TD NE (7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-J.Gordon for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10-Gordon 12th career 100-yard game. GB 17 – NE 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(5:08) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
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Q1 NE 4th & 17 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(3:39) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to GB 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
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Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 44%
(:20) 6-J.Scott punts 32 yards to NE 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
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Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(13:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
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Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(12:43) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to NE 27, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
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Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(11:46) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(:21) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to NE 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
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Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(7:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Gordon.
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Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(5:25) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to NE 48, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-J.Edelman to NE 48 for no gain (44-A.Morrison). PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
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Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 28%
(2:44) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to GB 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
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Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:40) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 28, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
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Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 48 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%
(3:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [94-A.Clayborn].