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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 10

New England Patriots 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model