4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to NE 27, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model