Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 73

New England Patriots 10 – Green Bay Packers 3

(11:46) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.15 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model