Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 10 – New England Patriots 17

(:21) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to NE 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.25 EP
48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -1.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model