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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 17 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Gordon.

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model