Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 96

Green Bay Packers 17 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to NE 48, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-J.Edelman to NE 48 for no gain (44-A.Morrison). PENALTY on NE-31-J.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.06 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 96, worth -5.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model