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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model