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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 44

Denver Broncos 10 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:22) (No Huddle) 8-B.McManus 62 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model