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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 16:05 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

HOU
50.5%
DEN
49.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Case Keenum (DEN) -0.064 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.157 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

HOU

Zach Cunningham LB Out Knee
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Groin
Aaron Colvin CB Questionable Ankle
Keke Coutee WR Questionable Hamstring
Andre Hal S Questionable Shoulder
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Ankle

DEN

DaeSean Hamilton WR Out Knee
Brandon Marshall LB Out Knee
Bradley Roby CB Out Ankle
Darian Stewart S Out Neck
Royce Freeman RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 19
–
DEN 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:59 TD HOU (10:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 83-J.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 04:47 FG DEN (4:47) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. HOU 7 – DEN 3
  • Q2 11:10 TD HOU (11:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – DEN 3
  • Q2 05:39 TD DEN (5:39) (Shotgun) 23-D.Booker right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 16 – DEN 10
  • Q3 06:03 TD DEN (6:03) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short middle to 82-J.Heuerman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – DEN 16
  • Q4 14:11 FG HOU (14:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel. HOU 19 – DEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to HOU 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 31 for 16 yards (41-I.Yiadom).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 19 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:02) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to DEN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 34 for -1 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on HOU-33-A.Moore, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DEN 34.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 84%

    (4:47) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (13:41) 28-A.Blue up the middle to DEN 20 for -1 yards (55-B.Chubb).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:43) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to HOU 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 13 for 5 yards (33-A.Moore).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 10 for no gain (49-J.Keyes). PENALTY on DEN-38-S.Thomas, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 10.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 44%

    (:22) (No Huddle) 8-B.McManus 62 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:33) 3-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to HOU 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 23 for no gain (89-B.Parker).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:06) 8-T.Daniel punts 48 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 19 for -3 yards (33-A.Moore).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (14:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:07) 3-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to HOU 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:26) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 27 for 5 yards (38-G.Howell).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 17 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 36%

    (7:17) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to HOU 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:40) 8-T.Daniel punts 61 yards to DEN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 14 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:55) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 82-J.Heuerman to DEN 43 for 3 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders to HOU 37 for 18 yards (20-J.Reid) [59-W.Mercilus].