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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 10 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 3-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to HOU 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 23 for no gain (89-B.Parker).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP