Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 80

Denver Broncos 17 – Houston Texans 19

(12:07) 3-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to HOU 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model