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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 72

Houston Texans 19 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 8-T.Daniel punts 50 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 27 for 5 yards (38-G.Howell).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP