Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 7

(9:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to HOU 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 31 for 16 yards (41-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model