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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 47

Denver Broncos 17 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to HOU 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.73 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model