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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 65

Houston Texans 19 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 8-T.Daniel punts 61 yards to DEN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 14 for 10 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model