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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 60

Denver Broncos 17 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 82-J.Heuerman to DEN 43 for 3 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.13 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model