Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 78

Houston Texans 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to DEN 35, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 34 for -1 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on HOU-33-A.Moore, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DEN 34.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.68 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model