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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 49
Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0
What Actually Happened
(12:33) 24-N.Chubb right guard to KC 48 for 1 yard (53-A.Hitchens).
The Three Options
GO
+1.46 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.33 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
KICK
-1.49 EP
- 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
- 78% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT
-0.05 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
