Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.262 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.127 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.385 EPA/dropback
- CLE offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- CLE defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- KC defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Wind 16 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
KC
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:25 TD KC (8:25) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-28-E.Gaines was injured during the play. His return is Probable. KC 6 – CLE 0
- Q1 02:45 FG CLE (2:45) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. KC 7 – CLE 3
- Q2 13:33 TD KC (13:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – CLE 3
- Q2 06:33 TD CLE (6:33) 24-N.Chubb left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – CLE 9
- Q2 02:26 TD KC (2:26) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – CLE 9
- Q2 00:32 TD CLE (:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 29-D.Johnson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – CLE 15
- Q3 10:08 TD KC (10:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – CLE 15
- Q3 07:33 TD KC (7:33) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – CLE 15
- Q4 15:00 TD CLE (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 34 – CLE 21
- Q4 09:30 FG KC (9:30) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 37 – CLE 21
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 22%
(12:33) 24-N.Chubb right guard to KC 48 for 1 yard (53-A.Hitchens).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 33%
(11:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to KC 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 16 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 63%
(2:45) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 36%
(8:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson ran ob at KC 20 for 23 yards (21-E.Murray).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(8:10) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 26-Dam. Williams, Center-47-C.Hughlett, ball out of bounds at CLE 21.
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Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%
(9:30) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 31%
(7:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson to KC 46 for -1 yards (57-B.Speaks) [24-J.Lucas].
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 50 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 20%
(:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CLE 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. Penalty on CLE-18-D.Ratley, Defensive Offside, declined.