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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to KC 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-87-S.DeValve.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model