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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 15 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(8:10) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 26-Dam. Williams, Center-47-C.Hughlett, ball out of bounds at CLE 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model