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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 37

What Actually Happened

(7:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson to KC 46 for -1 yards (57-B.Speaks) [24-J.Lucas].

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.77 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model