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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Field Goal formation) 6-J.Hekker right end pushed ob at NO 13 for 3 yards (52-C.Robertson). The Rams lined up in traditional field goal formation, but at the snap, #6. J.Hekker took the ball on a designed rushing play. Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 13:06.)

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model