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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 57.5

Win Probability

LA
54.8%
NO
45.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.219 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.283 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.261 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 28
–
NO 26
Projected margin: LA by 2 Projected total: 54

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LA

Sam Shields CB Questionable Illness

NO

Marcus Davenport DE Out Toe

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 35
–
NO 45

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD NO (9:33) 41-A.Kamara left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 06:11 TD LA (6:11) 30-T.Gurley right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – NO 7
  • Q1 01:46 TD NO (1:46) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 10 LA 7 – NO 13
  • Q2 14:17 TD LA (14:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 12-B.Cooks for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 0 LA 13 – NO 14
  • Q2 07:39 TD NO (7:39) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 10-T.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 0 LA 14 – NO 20
  • Q2 01:11 TD NO (1:11) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 3 LA 14 – NO 27
  • Q2 00:28 TD NO (:28) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 14 – NO 34
  • Q2 00:02 FG LA (:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 17 – NO 35
  • Q3 09:47 TD LA (9:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 34-M.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 7, YAC 11 LA 23 – NO 35
  • Q3 01:34 FG LA (1:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 27 – NO 35
  • Q4 09:57 TD LA (9:57) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 36 LA 33 – NO 35
  • Q4 06:28 FG NO (6:28) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. LA 35 – NO 38
  • Q4 04:02 TD NO (4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LA 35 – NO 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 64%

    (11:43) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill scrambles left end to LA 28 for 9 yards (20-L.Joyner).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (13:14) (Field Goal formation) 6-J.Hekker right end pushed ob at NO 13 for 3 yards (52-C.Robertson). The Rams lined up in traditional field goal formation, but at the snap, #6. J.Hekker took the ball on a designed rushing play. Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 13:06.)

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%

    (3:35) 4-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 46%

    (5:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 28 yards to LA 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (1:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to LA 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%

    (6:28) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 32%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 12-B.Cooks (26-P.Williams) [56-D.Davis].

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 54%

    (2:00) 41-A.Kamara right end to LA 39 for 2 yards (54-B.Hager).