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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 35 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 28 yards to LA 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.35 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP