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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 24 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP