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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 35 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to LA 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -2.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model