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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 35 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model