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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 41
New Orleans Saints 45 – Los Angeles Rams 35
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 41-A.Kamara right end to LA 39 for 2 yards (54-B.Hager).
The Three Options
GO
+0.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.80 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP
KICK
-0.14 EP
- 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT
-0.87 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.87 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
