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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 40 yards to NYJ 24, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on NYJ-98-M.Pennel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP