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New York Jets

3-6 HC Todd Bowles
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

5-4 HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
41.8%
MIA
58.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than NYJ
  • QB edge to NYJ: Brock Osweiler (MIA) -0.094 vs Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.070 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19 12–26
–
MIA 20 13–27
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 39

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

NYJ

Neal Sterling TE Out Concussion
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Doubtful Foot
Trumaine Johnson CB Doubtful Quadricep
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Back
Robby Anderson WR Questionable Ankle
Quincy Enunwa WR Questionable Ankle
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Neck
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Ankle

MIA

Charles Harris DE Out Calf
Cordrea Tankersley CB Out Knee
Ryan Tannehill QB Out right Shoulder
A.J. Derby TE Questionable Foot
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Ankle
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
MIA 13

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:44 FG MIA (12:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. NYJ 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 01:14 FG MIA (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. NYJ 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 00:25 FG NYJ (:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – MIA 6
  • Q4 10:56 TD MIA (10:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker at NYJ 25. 55-J.Baker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – MIA 12
  • Q4 06:03 FG NYJ (6:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – MIA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 17%

    (13:08) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to NYJ 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:59) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (9:37) 21-F.Gore right guard to MIA 46 for 2 yards (54-A.Williamson; 21-M.Claiborne).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 24%

    (7:05) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NYJ 12, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:00) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 39 for 19 yards (45-R.Miles; 58-D.Lee).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:08) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 81%

    (12:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:14) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 27 for 12 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 40 yards to NYJ 24, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on NYJ-98-M.Pennel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:20) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 50%

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short left to 32-K.Drake ran ob at NYJ 31 for 7 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 96%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 71%

    (:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%

    (10:58) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to MIA 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:42) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to NYJ 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (27-K.Ballage).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:29) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for 6 yards (17-C.Peake; 42-T.Hennessy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:32) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NYJ 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 18 for 9 yards (34-S.Perry).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 66%

    (12:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 40 yards to NYJ 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (6:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:26) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 18, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at MIA 40. 22-T.McDonald to 50 for 10 yards (11-R.Anderson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 22%

    (1:56) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-44-S.Anthony.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 15%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 35-W.Aikens at MIA 19. 35-W.Aikens ran ob at MIA 19 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →