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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 43

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(10:58) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to MIA 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model