Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 3

(3:32) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to NYJ 9, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 18 for 9 yards (34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.93 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model