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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 32

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model