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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 40 yards to NYJ 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model