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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 21-F.Gore right guard to MIA 46 for 2 yards (54-A.Williamson; 21-M.Claiborne).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model