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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 18, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP