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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 13 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-44-S.Anthony.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model