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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 53

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 10-J.Kearse INTERCEPTED by 35-W.Aikens at MIA 19. 35-W.Aikens ran ob at MIA 19 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.57 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model