Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

(3:08) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NYJ 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.11 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model