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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 25

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model