Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Carolina Panthers 35

(12:02) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 31, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.02 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model