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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2018-11-04 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

TB
46.7%
CAR
53.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB): +0.178 EPA/dropback in prior starts (TB starting Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of Jameis Winston)
  • CAR defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TB

Ronald Jones RB Out Hamstring
Evan Smith G Out Hip
M.J. Stewart CB Out Foot
Vinny Curry DE Questionable Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Calf

CAR

Torrey Smith WR Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 28
–
CAR 42

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:39 TD CAR (10:39) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 40-A.Armah up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 03:19 TD CAR (3:19) 22-C.McCaffrey right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CAR 13
  • Q2 14:21 TD TB (14:21) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-T.Davis]. TB 6 – CAR 14
  • Q2 11:36 TD CAR (11:36) 10-C.Samuel left end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a double reverse TB 7 – CAR 20
  • Q2 07:29 TD CAR (7:29) 71-M.Newhouse reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 7 – CAR 27
  • Q2 04:07 TD CAR (4:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 88-G.Olsen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – CAR 34
  • Q2 00:19 TD TB (:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – CAR 35
  • Q3 05:18 TD TB (5:18) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 10-A.Humphries for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – CAR 35
  • Q4 14:33 TD TB (14:33) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to CAR 1 for 29 yards (59-L.Kuechly). Tampa Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – CAR 35
  • Q4 09:10 TD CAR (9:10) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 10-C.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – CAR 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:10) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to CAR 32, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to TB 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:20) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CAR 12, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:33) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger pass incomplete short right to 45-A.Cross (55-D.Mayo) [53-B.Jacobs].

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries to TB 29 for 8 yards (54-S.Thompson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 16 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:02) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 31, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to TB 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 16 for 7 yards (10-C.Samuel).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 56%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess to TB 36 for 2 yards (33-C.Davis III). PENALTY on TB-33-C.Davis III, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 20 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:05) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CAR 9, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to TB 39, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-18-D.Byrd.