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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to TB 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 16 for 7 yards (10-C.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model