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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Carolina Panthers 42

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CAR 9, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.18 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model