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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to TEN 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model