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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Monday 2018-11-05 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

TEN
32.7%
DAL
67.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.048 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.038 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TEN

Derrick Morgan LB Out Shoulder
Will Compton LB Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Tavon Austin WR Out Groin
David Irving DE Out Ankle
Joe Thomas LB Out Foot
Geoff Swaim TE Doubtful Knee
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee
Zack Martin G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 28
–
DAL 14

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:18 TD DAL (6:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 09:41 TD TEN (9:41) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 04:21 TD TEN (4:21) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 33-D.Lewis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – DAL 7
  • Q2 00:45 TD DAL (:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 17-A.Hurns for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – DAL 13
  • Q3 05:50 TD TEN (5:50) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Shovel pass for the touchdown. TEN 20 – DAL 14
  • Q4 04:44 TD TEN (4:44) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – DAL 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (10:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to TEN 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to DAL 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-C.Beasley ran ob at DAL 18 for 7 yards (36-L.Sims).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to TEN 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 25 for 11 yards (57-D.Wilson; 38-J.Heath).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (11:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to TEN 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 25-A.Jackson to DAL 49 for 5 yards (49-J.Olawale). PENALTY on TEN-44-K.Correa, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 46. Penalty on TEN-56-S.Finch, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Cooper [98-B.Orakpo].