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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to DAL 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-C.Beasley ran ob at DAL 18 for 7 yards (36-L.Sims).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model