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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to TEN 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 25 for 11 yards (57-D.Wilson; 38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model